State of the internet

Bob Sneidar bobs at twft.com
Wed Oct 3 12:31:20 EDT 2012


I'd like to point out something I noticed when I was young. People tend to put a lot of stock in what has happened in the past, and then apply it to predict what will happen in the future. From stock prices to global warming, everyone seems to think that trends will continue in a linear fashion because we have seen a tiny segment of something as it progresses over time, and then we make the mistake of presuming it will continue to do so in the same manner. 

This is quite odd, because what we really see in life is cyclical behavior. Things go up and down. Almost nothing about real life follows a linear trend. I would venture to say absolutely nothing, but someone would doubtless point out some exception that was so obvious it made me look stupid for saying it. 

Charts and graphs are great for showing us what has happened. They are almost worthless for predicting the future. If things did proceed along linear paths, Apple would be a bankrupt company and Microsoft... nay IBM would rule the world! Also you probably would not be able to buy a house in Orange County right now for under 3 million. 

Bob


On Oct 2, 2012, at 8:52 PM, J. Landman Gay wrote:

> On 10/2/12 10:34 PM, Mark Wieder wrote:
>> Jacque-
>> 
>> Tuesday, October 2, 2012, 8:00:38 PM, you wrote:
>> 
>>> I suppose in ten years we'll look at our desktop machines with the same
>>> nostalgia as we do now with typewriters. At least, those of us who
>>> remember typewriters, which of course I've only read about...
>> 
>> ...I've heard about reading. What was that like?
>> 
> 
> Much, much faster than stone etchings.
> 
> -- 
> Jacqueline Landman Gay         |     jacque at hyperactivesw.com
> HyperActive Software           |     http://www.hyperactivesw.com
> 
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