new iPhone 4s

[Chipp Walters]

Based on the feedback here, and knowing I can't wait another 16 months for Apple to announce a competitive phone, I visited the AT&T store today. As a side note, when Apple first introduced the iPhone 4, Android had only 9% of the smartphone market. Now, only 16 months later, it has passed Apple's 27% with an almost 44% share. Wow! Talk about growth and adoption rate.
http://www.slashgear.com/comscore-android-nears-44-of-us-smartphone-market-share-05185688/

And regarding Apple's lackluster performance yesterday, even the Apple fans agree:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/10/05/apples_iphone_4s_event_seen_lacking_panache_allowing_android_to_gain.html

The trend is clear. For a short time, Apple owned the market in Smartphones, but no longer. Apples tablet marketshare has dropped another 20 points over the past year. Apple's incredible designs and features have been copied and many eclipsed by the competition-- and for a lower price. Those who are brand loyal stick with Apple. Those who are value and feature conscious will migrate.

Back to AT&T. The salesperson told me how surprised he was to see the many of iPhone users asking the same questions today about Android smartphones. And here's the rub: whether you agree with him, or me, the fact is when I switch to Android, I take a whole lot of folks with me. I have 5 iPhone users on my AT&T plan. I influence many other close relatives and family members who look to me to provide advice on these sort of difficult decisions. I also have quite an active social media profile. I suspect there are also many leading edge consumers who are considering a switch which will affect others similarly.

So, my prediction. I believe within 3 years of Jobs not being chairman, iOS devices will be in the 30% marketshare for both tablets and phones OR Apple will begin licensing iOS to other manufacturers.