[OT] Flash is NOT Dead

[Lynn Fredricks]

> It would appear Flash is dead or certainly critically ill. 
> Happened much quicker than even I expected.
> 
> http://www.telecomtv.com/comspace_newsDetail.aspx?n=47914&id=e
> 9381817-0593-417a-8639-c4c53e2a2a10
> 
> And all those people who thought banning Flash would be the 
> end of Apple, and that it was stifling competition. I can't 
> count the number of people who've told me they 'must have' 
> Flash so I've said 'don't buy an iPhone/iPad', but they still 
> did. Maybe that's why Adobe gave up so quickly, even they saw 
> the people who wanted Flash weren't prepared to support it?

Hey Kay - wow, that site has an annoying pop up. If you don't want to join,
that pop up doesn't go away and won't let you read the article.

Adobe putting out an HTML 5 animation product doesn't mean anything about
winning or losing. They are, very wisely, putting out a tool because web
interactivity is a market where they already have a strong foothold. Not
doing anything is worse. If Adobe can sell you yet another product, it is a
win - and they have a huge user base to sell to.  There are some other HTML
5 products out there already, but its in Adobe's interest that you buy from
Adobe instead of them. These companies groom sets of customers to sell more
stuff to, and if you fall outside of that target customer profile, they
really don't care.

Adobe hasn't given up on Flash at all - they are spending time on
developments which can still differentiate Flash from what you can achieve
with HTML 5, such as Molehill:
http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/flashplatformruntimes/features/stage3d.ht
ml.

Blocking Flash from iOS has hurt Apple (a little) because its given the
Android phone and tablet market a gift, but you are right - so many people
do not care. The details of the arguments surrounding Apple's walled garden
strategy, on top of other developer focused weirdness we've all experienced
at one time or the othe working with Apple, is just static noise to your
average iPhone user. 

One thing you can bank on is that people are more than willing to not look
beyond the most immediate and self gratifying. I mean, how else can you
explain the success of strategies that "reward" you with a sort of average
discount for 12 months, but still charge you a much higher price for the
remainder of a 36 month contract (ie cable companies...)?

I see two companies with very smart people coming up with very far reaching
strategies. Very interesting times we live in.

Best regards,

Lynn Fredricks
President
Paradigma Software
http://www.paradigmasoft.com

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